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应急煤炭储备是中国特有的问题,但国内对其规模的定量研究非常少。本文从中国煤炭运输格局、发电用煤需求波动角度研究了建立国家级和省级应急煤炭储备省份的选择,运用极值分析方法研究了煤炭输入省份发电耗煤变动的极值冲击情况,确定了应对不同概率的发电用煤需求冲击的煤炭储备规模,证明当前应急煤炭储备500万吨规模的目标太低。文章最后提出保障我国煤炭供应安全的政策建议:建立省级和国家级应急煤炭储备;建立煤炭产能储备和运力储备;继续扩大应急煤炭储备规模。
Emergency coal reserve is a peculiar issue in China, but there is very little domestic quantitative research on its scale. This paper studies the choice of establishing national and provincial emergency coal reserve provinces from the perspective of China’s coal transportation pattern and the fluctuation of coal demand for power generation and uses the extreme value analysis method to study the extreme impact of coal consumption in coal-importing provinces. To cope with different probabilities of coal demand for power generation impact of the size of coal reserves, to prove the current emergency coal reserves of 5 million tons scale target is too low. Finally, the article puts forward the policy recommendations to ensure the safety of China’s coal supply: the establishment of provincial and state emergency coal reserves; the establishment of coal production capacity and capacity reserves; continue to expand the scale of emergency coal reserves.