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蕹菜是上海地区的夏季保淡的重要蔬菜品种,年栽培面积1 000~1 200 hm2,占上海市蔬菜常年栽培面积的4%~6%,白锈病已成为影响蕹菜生产安全的重要病害之一。为确保蕹菜的夏季保淡作用,提高蕹菜白锈病调查测报水平,通过改善田间调查方法,整理、汇总历史测报资料,筛选出对预测起关键作用的4个因子,建立了可用于指导生产的预测数学模型预测式3个,经验证,其中一个预测模型与历史实际发生的拟合度较最为接近,预测的平均拟合率可达到97%。
Brasenia schreberi is an important vegetable variety in summer in Shanghai, with annual cultivated area of 1 000-1 200 hm 2, accounting for 4% -6% of perennial cultivated area of Shanghai vegetable. White rust has become an important disease affecting the safety of Brasenia schreberi one. In order to ensure the summer light preservation effect of Brasenia schreberi, and to improve the survey and reporting level of white rust in Brasenia schreberkus, four factors which play a key role in the prediction were screened by improving field survey methods, Of predictive mathematical model predictive 3, verified that one of the predictive models and the actual occurrence of the history of the closest fit, the average predicted rate of up to 97%.