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500 hPa格点资料是长期水文气象预报中的重要资料之一。采用回归—综合相似分析方法,从500 hPa高度场上挑选出关键区因子,对因子的组合方法加以改进,并结合综合相似分析方法应用于瀑布沟水电站工程施工期长期水文气象预报。以石棉站7月最高水位预报为例,详细介绍了应用北半球500 hPa格点资料进行相关普查、持续性和稳定性检验、组合因子改进及回归、综合相似分析及综合预报等过程。此方法预报效果好,值得推广。
500 hPa grid data is one of the important data in long-term hydrological and meteorological forecast. Regression - comprehensive similarity analysis was used to select the key zone factors from the 500 hPa geopotential height field and to improve the combination of factors. The comprehensive similarity analysis method was applied to the long-term hydro-meteorological forecast during the construction of Pubugou Hydropower Station. Taking asbestos station in July the highest water level forecast as an example, this paper introduces the application of the 500 hPa grid data in Northern Hemisphere for the related census, continuity and stability test, combinatorial factor improvement and regression, comprehensive similarity analysis and comprehensive forecasting. This method has good forecasting effect and is worth promoting.