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目的通过分析山东省乙型肝炎不同时期发病率的变化,发现其时间流行趋势,探讨乙型肝炎的预测方法,为进一步预防控制乙型肝炎工作提供科学参考依据。方法利用山东省2004—2012年法定报告乙类传染病历史疫情资料,应用描述性流行病学方法来描述人群中乙型肝炎的分布情况,揭示山东省乙型肝炎的时间流行趋势。同时应用ARIMA方法对山东省乙型肝炎疫情的流行趋势进行预测。结果通过模型的拟合结果分析预测效果较好,所拟合的模型为最优模型,可用于预测。结论对山东省2004年1月—2012年12月乙型肝炎发病率进行描述性流行病学分析后,可见山东省乙型肝炎的时间流行趋势具有明显的周期性。利用乙型肝炎的月发病率进行模型预测可知:该模型较好地预测了山东省乙型肝炎月发病率的发展趋势,24个月份的预测发病率95%的置信区间中包含实际发病率,进一步说明该模型对未来发病率的预测较为准确。
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B in different periods in Shandong Province and find out the time trend of hepatitis B, and to explore the prediction method of hepatitis B, and provide scientific reference for further prevention and control of hepatitis B. Methods Based on the statistic data of historical epidemics of type B infectious diseases in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2012, the distribution of hepatitis B in the population was described by using descriptive epidemiology, and the time trend of hepatitis B in Shandong Province was revealed. At the same time, ARIMA method was used to predict the epidemic trend of hepatitis B in Shandong Province. The results of the model fitting results of the analysis and forecasting effect is good, the fitted model is the best model, can be used for prediction. Conclusions Descriptive epidemiological analysis of the incidence of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from January 2004 to December 2012 shows that the time trend of hepatitis B in Shandong Province has obvious periodicity. Using the monthly incidence of hepatitis B for model prediction, this model predicts the trend of monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Shandong Province. The confidence interval of 95% of predicted incidence in 24 months includes the actual incidence, Further illustrate the model for the prediction of future morbidity is more accurate.