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流感是人类健康的重大威胁之一.为探索预防新型流感大流行的有效策略,建立了北京市计算流行病模型,评估了边境口岸检疫,病例治疗,病例隔离,社会关系抗病毒预防以及免疫接种措施对四种新型流感大流行的预防效能.结果表明:边境口岸检疫对于预防新型流感大流行的作用非常有限;积极的病例治疗可预防传播能力类似于2009年A(H1N1)的新型流感大流行;高强度的病例治疗和病例隔离可预防传播能力类似于1957年A(H2N2)的新型流感大流行;对于传播能力类似于1918年A(H1N1)的新型流感,在高强度病例治疗和病例隔离的基础上须对病例的社会关系进行抗病毒预防才有可能预防大流行;而对于具有超级传播能力的新型流感(R_0>3.3),必须依靠有效的广谱疫苗才能预防大流行.研究结果对于进一步完善我国应对流感大流行的应急准备与处置计划具有参考价值.
Influenza is one of the major threats to human health.In order to explore effective strategies to prevent a new influenza pandemic, a model of computational epidemiology in Beijing was established to assess the effects of quarantine at border crossings, treatment of cases, isolation of cases, antiviral prevention of social relations and immunization The results showed that the effect of quarantine at border crossings on the prevention of a new influenza pandemic was very limited. Positive case-based treatment could prevent the spread of a new flu pandemic similar to that of 2009 (H1N1) ; High-intensity case treatment and case isolation prevented the transmission of a new influenza pandemic similar to that of A (H2N2) in 1957; for new influenza of similar transmitibility to A (H1N1) in 1918, the treatment of high-intensity cases and case isolation The prevention of pandemic should be based on antiviral prophylaxis of the social relations of cases, and the pandemic must be relied on effective broad-spectrum vaccines for new influenza with super-transmission ability (R_0> 3.3) It is of reference value for us to further improve our emergency response and pandemic plan to deal with the influenza pandemic.