泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一 ,然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低 ,误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失 ,但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失 ,应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则 ,建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型 ,并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟 Debris flow prediction is one of the important means of debris flow disaster reduction. However, the complexity of debris flow formation makes debris flow forecasting accuracy low, and false positives and false negatives are higher. Both false positives and false negatives can cause losses, but the losses caused by the two are very different. In order to reduce the losses caused by the mishandling or omission of debris flow, we should consider the difference between the losses caused by the two kinds of misstatements. According to the principle of minimizing the total average loss, the debris flow forecasting model under different conditions of loss was established, and the model was applied to the Jiangjiagou