论文部分内容阅读
Lin Hong—a 29-year-old software engineer and amateur stock trader living in Beijing—was excited to hear that the proposed Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program had been approved.
After seeing the roughly half a million yuan（$75，000） he had invested in the stock market evaporate by 40 percent， equaling three years’worth of his earnings， in mid-June of 2015， Lin still holds on to the stocks despite having gone through a financial roller coaster.
“I’m waiting for a good chance to sell my stocks，” Lin told Beijing Review. “The ShenzhenHK program will help bring more global investors into China’s mainland stock markets， which is bound to lift market sentiment.”
The long-planned stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen， south China’s Guangdong Province， was approved by China’s State Council on August 16. The move marks another milestone in the country’s efforts to open its capital markets to the world.
Technical preparations for the stock connect will take place from August to November， with the program scheduled to begin in midto late November， said Qi Bin， Director of the International Cooperation Department at the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Experts say that the Shenzhen scheme， can help lift market sentiment， push forward the yuan’s internationalization， and cement Hong Kong’s status as an offshore yuan hub. Some believe that it is also an opportunity for China’s A shares to be included in the MSCI index.
However， although the program sounds good for investors on paper， challenges lurk on the horizon， as a slowing economy， an imperfect stock market system， and yuan depreciation pressures have dampened investor confidence.
Market reactions
The long-anticipated Shenzhen-HK program， which will give Chinese mainland investors the option to buy Hong Kong stocks and viceversa， has been in the works for more than a year following the inauguration of a similar program between Shanghai and Hong Kong in November 2014.
“The biggest implication of the Shenzhen- HK Stock Connect is that it demonstrates China’s intention to internationalize its financial markets and open up to global investors as quickly as possible， through all types of channels，” wrote Li Yimin and Li Huiyong， analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd.， in a research note.
According to Charles Li， CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. （HKEx）， the most important and significant change is the abolition of the overall trading limits. China launched the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect program in November 2014 to link the two cities’ stock markets under an aggregate quota of 550 billion yuan （$82.4 billion）. But， following the announcement of the Shenzhen link’s approval， both programs will operate quota-free.
However， both schemes will operate under the daily limits currently in place for Shanghai’s program—13 billion yuan （$1.95 billion） for orders going north to Chinese mainland stocks and 10.5 billion yuan （$1.57 billion） for southbound orders.
China’s stock market took the move positively. The Shanghai Composite Index （SCI） rallied following the policy announcement， and analysts have been busy preparing their stock picks.
Ye Rongtian， a stock market analyst， predicted that China’s NASDAQ-style board in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange—ChiNext—will grow tremendously.
“The fact that China’s top decision makers and supervisory bodies approved the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect scheme means they have come to the conclusion that the market will face no downward risks for a certain period to come，” wrote Ye in his Sina Weibo microblog.
“Therefore， it’s common sense that ChiNext， which has been suppressed over the past three months， will see drastic growth. Clever investors should not study where the markets will go now， but should examine which stocks to buy to make the most money out of the scheme，” Ye explained on August 16.
Sandy Mehta， CEO of Hong Kong-based Value Investment Principals Ltd.， said global investors have been waiting for the Shenzhen-HK link for quite some time.
“There’s definitely interest among global money managers for the opening up of the Chinese mainland market. We have received many questions from our global clients over the past couple of years. Starting with Shanghai， and now Shenzhen， clients have been busy looking for opportunities in stocks that they were not able to access before，”Mehta told Beijing Review.
Mehta praised the lifting of the total quota， calling it a major step forward to further open up China’s market to international investors.
“This is clearly a step in the right direction， and the Chinese authorities have fulfilled a pledge to investors and made the market more interesting for larger clients and fund managers，” Mehta said.
Far-reaching significance
The stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen has significance far beyond lifting market sentiment， though. According to a research note by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities， the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect program will be consequential for three major reasons.
First， it can meet investors’ increasing demands for diversified overseas investments and risk management. Second， it helps promote China’s reforms and further opens up its capital markets by attracting more overseas capital into China’s A-share market， ultimately improving the market’s investor structure. Finally， the scheme will facilitate the internationalization of the yuan. Removing the overall trading quota in the two stock connect programs is a major step in opening up the capital account. The yuan will be officially included in the IMF’s special drawing rights （SDR） basket later this year， and China has promised to fulfill the goals outlined for its financial reforms.
The approval of the Shenzhen-HK program is an important part of these efforts. In the long run， an array of SDR-centric measures will be taken to further open up Chinese markets， which will help attract more global capital and underpin long-term yuan exchange rates， read the research note.
HKEx CEO Li said he believes the stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen will help cement Hong Kong’s status as the gateway to the mainland’s multi-trillion dollar investor base.
“The new link program will help underpin the city’s position as an offshore yuan center. We hope to build Hong Kong， an international financial center， into an offshore wealth management center for Chinese investors， a yuan and global asset offshore pricing center and an all-round offshore risk management center，” Li said at a press briefing held on August 16.
According to some analysts’ forecasts， the launch of the Shenzhen-HK link may increase the likelihood of index compiler MSCI adding China’s A shares to its influential benchmark index， which could attract billions of dollars of funds into the Chinese stock market.
In June， China’s A-shares failed to gain inclusion in the MSCI index for the third time. The MSCI Inc. cited accessibility issues for the decision. A critical premise for China’s A-shares to be included in the MSCI index is that global capital can invest in stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
“Since one of the major considerations of the MSCI is about market access， the new cross-border scheme between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is going to remove this hurdle，”said Li， who believes that the new scheme will definitely increase the chance of A-shares being added to the MSCI index when the index compiler conducts its next review. Challenges ahead
Since its launch in late 2014， trading on the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect platform has not been as active as expected， especially following China’s stock market rout in mid-June last year.
As of August 16， the southbound quota usage stood at more than 80 percent， while Hong Kong used up just 50 percent of its northbound quota， according to Bloomberg data.
“In the short term， I very much doubt this will drive significant flows into Shenzhen shares， as a lot of stocks are expensive，” Caroline Yu Maurer， head of Greater China equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners， told Reuters.
Value Investment Principals CEO Mehta disagreed with Maurer， saying that although the level of trading seen in the Shanghai-HK program has not been as large as expected， it reflects other factors such as the growth rate of the overall Chinese economy and emerging markets as a broad asset class being less preferred than other markets.
“While the Shenzhen market is not as large as Shanghai’s， we nonetheless see active volumes and investor participation，” Mehta told Beijing Review.
With the experience and knowledge gained over the past two years through the ShanghaiHK link， Mehta is optimistic that the ShenzhenHK program will go smoothly for all participants including the government authorities， brokerage firms and investors.
Shenzhen’s market is different from Shanghai’s in that it is home to most of China’s hi-tech industries and Internet companies， which tend to have high growth potential and are therefore appealing to fund managers.
According to data from the World Federation of Exchanges， the number of listed companies in China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange reached 1，790 by the end of July， several hundred more than the number in Shanghai’s market. As Asia’s busiest exchange hub， its monthly turnover exceeds$1 trillion， and its average daily turnover trails only behind that of the New York Stock Exchange.
According to Su Jie， a senior researcher with Bank of China （Hong Kong） Ltd.， companies listed in Shenzhen are more attractive to overseas investors than those in Shanghai.
Myriad Shenzhen-listed companies are in emerging industries such as healthcare and IT. In recent years， overseas institutional investors have been keen on those sectors due to their potential for growth. Hong Kong could also use the stock trading link to develop more tailored financial products to lure more capital into the markets， Su told Xinhua News Agency. Nevertheless， Yi Xianrong， a professor at the School of Economics at Qingdao University， said that the imperfect system in the A-share market and the sustained low exchange rate of the yuan are among the biggest reasons why foreign investors are reluctant to invest in Chinese stock markets.
“Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen programs have offered Chinese stock markets a chance to attract foreign capital， but whether or not that plan succeeds depends on the healthy development of the market itself，” Yi wrote in a column for China News Agency.
According to Yi， the drastic volatility exhibited in the stock market during 2015 has greatly dampened investor confidence and， at the same time， has exposed many serious problems such as sudden IPO halts， insider trading and unsound delisting and supervision systems. These problems not only undermine domestic investor confidence， but also affect overseas investors’ confidence in the market， he said.
“Now， the launch of the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect offers fresh opportunities for the markets， but the real boom can only occur in a law-based， market-determined and international market，” Yi said.
Although excited over the news， Lin， the software engineer， said he is guardedly optimistic about the markets. He said the actual launch is unlikely to trigger an avalanche of funds into China’s stock markets.
After seeing the roughly half a million yuan（$75，000） he had invested in the stock market evaporate by 40 percent， equaling three years’worth of his earnings， in mid-June of 2015， Lin still holds on to the stocks despite having gone through a financial roller coaster.
“I’m waiting for a good chance to sell my stocks，” Lin told Beijing Review. “The ShenzhenHK program will help bring more global investors into China’s mainland stock markets， which is bound to lift market sentiment.”
The long-planned stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen， south China’s Guangdong Province， was approved by China’s State Council on August 16. The move marks another milestone in the country’s efforts to open its capital markets to the world.
Technical preparations for the stock connect will take place from August to November， with the program scheduled to begin in midto late November， said Qi Bin， Director of the International Cooperation Department at the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Experts say that the Shenzhen scheme， can help lift market sentiment， push forward the yuan’s internationalization， and cement Hong Kong’s status as an offshore yuan hub. Some believe that it is also an opportunity for China’s A shares to be included in the MSCI index.
However， although the program sounds good for investors on paper， challenges lurk on the horizon， as a slowing economy， an imperfect stock market system， and yuan depreciation pressures have dampened investor confidence.
Market reactions
The long-anticipated Shenzhen-HK program， which will give Chinese mainland investors the option to buy Hong Kong stocks and viceversa， has been in the works for more than a year following the inauguration of a similar program between Shanghai and Hong Kong in November 2014.
“The biggest implication of the Shenzhen- HK Stock Connect is that it demonstrates China’s intention to internationalize its financial markets and open up to global investors as quickly as possible， through all types of channels，” wrote Li Yimin and Li Huiyong， analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd.， in a research note.
According to Charles Li， CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. （HKEx）， the most important and significant change is the abolition of the overall trading limits. China launched the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect program in November 2014 to link the two cities’ stock markets under an aggregate quota of 550 billion yuan （$82.4 billion）. But， following the announcement of the Shenzhen link’s approval， both programs will operate quota-free.
However， both schemes will operate under the daily limits currently in place for Shanghai’s program—13 billion yuan （$1.95 billion） for orders going north to Chinese mainland stocks and 10.5 billion yuan （$1.57 billion） for southbound orders.
China’s stock market took the move positively. The Shanghai Composite Index （SCI） rallied following the policy announcement， and analysts have been busy preparing their stock picks.
Ye Rongtian， a stock market analyst， predicted that China’s NASDAQ-style board in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange—ChiNext—will grow tremendously.
“The fact that China’s top decision makers and supervisory bodies approved the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect scheme means they have come to the conclusion that the market will face no downward risks for a certain period to come，” wrote Ye in his Sina Weibo microblog.
“Therefore， it’s common sense that ChiNext， which has been suppressed over the past three months， will see drastic growth. Clever investors should not study where the markets will go now， but should examine which stocks to buy to make the most money out of the scheme，” Ye explained on August 16.
Sandy Mehta， CEO of Hong Kong-based Value Investment Principals Ltd.， said global investors have been waiting for the Shenzhen-HK link for quite some time.
“There’s definitely interest among global money managers for the opening up of the Chinese mainland market. We have received many questions from our global clients over the past couple of years. Starting with Shanghai， and now Shenzhen， clients have been busy looking for opportunities in stocks that they were not able to access before，”Mehta told Beijing Review.
Mehta praised the lifting of the total quota， calling it a major step forward to further open up China’s market to international investors.
“This is clearly a step in the right direction， and the Chinese authorities have fulfilled a pledge to investors and made the market more interesting for larger clients and fund managers，” Mehta said.
Far-reaching significance
The stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen has significance far beyond lifting market sentiment， though. According to a research note by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities， the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect program will be consequential for three major reasons.
First， it can meet investors’ increasing demands for diversified overseas investments and risk management. Second， it helps promote China’s reforms and further opens up its capital markets by attracting more overseas capital into China’s A-share market， ultimately improving the market’s investor structure. Finally， the scheme will facilitate the internationalization of the yuan. Removing the overall trading quota in the two stock connect programs is a major step in opening up the capital account. The yuan will be officially included in the IMF’s special drawing rights （SDR） basket later this year， and China has promised to fulfill the goals outlined for its financial reforms.
The approval of the Shenzhen-HK program is an important part of these efforts. In the long run， an array of SDR-centric measures will be taken to further open up Chinese markets， which will help attract more global capital and underpin long-term yuan exchange rates， read the research note.
HKEx CEO Li said he believes the stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen will help cement Hong Kong’s status as the gateway to the mainland’s multi-trillion dollar investor base.
“The new link program will help underpin the city’s position as an offshore yuan center. We hope to build Hong Kong， an international financial center， into an offshore wealth management center for Chinese investors， a yuan and global asset offshore pricing center and an all-round offshore risk management center，” Li said at a press briefing held on August 16.
According to some analysts’ forecasts， the launch of the Shenzhen-HK link may increase the likelihood of index compiler MSCI adding China’s A shares to its influential benchmark index， which could attract billions of dollars of funds into the Chinese stock market.
In June， China’s A-shares failed to gain inclusion in the MSCI index for the third time. The MSCI Inc. cited accessibility issues for the decision. A critical premise for China’s A-shares to be included in the MSCI index is that global capital can invest in stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
“Since one of the major considerations of the MSCI is about market access， the new cross-border scheme between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is going to remove this hurdle，”said Li， who believes that the new scheme will definitely increase the chance of A-shares being added to the MSCI index when the index compiler conducts its next review. Challenges ahead
Since its launch in late 2014， trading on the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect platform has not been as active as expected， especially following China’s stock market rout in mid-June last year.
As of August 16， the southbound quota usage stood at more than 80 percent， while Hong Kong used up just 50 percent of its northbound quota， according to Bloomberg data.
“In the short term， I very much doubt this will drive significant flows into Shenzhen shares， as a lot of stocks are expensive，” Caroline Yu Maurer， head of Greater China equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners， told Reuters.
Value Investment Principals CEO Mehta disagreed with Maurer， saying that although the level of trading seen in the Shanghai-HK program has not been as large as expected， it reflects other factors such as the growth rate of the overall Chinese economy and emerging markets as a broad asset class being less preferred than other markets.
“While the Shenzhen market is not as large as Shanghai’s， we nonetheless see active volumes and investor participation，” Mehta told Beijing Review.
With the experience and knowledge gained over the past two years through the ShanghaiHK link， Mehta is optimistic that the ShenzhenHK program will go smoothly for all participants including the government authorities， brokerage firms and investors.
Shenzhen’s market is different from Shanghai’s in that it is home to most of China’s hi-tech industries and Internet companies， which tend to have high growth potential and are therefore appealing to fund managers.
According to data from the World Federation of Exchanges， the number of listed companies in China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange reached 1，790 by the end of July， several hundred more than the number in Shanghai’s market. As Asia’s busiest exchange hub， its monthly turnover exceeds$1 trillion， and its average daily turnover trails only behind that of the New York Stock Exchange.
According to Su Jie， a senior researcher with Bank of China （Hong Kong） Ltd.， companies listed in Shenzhen are more attractive to overseas investors than those in Shanghai.
Myriad Shenzhen-listed companies are in emerging industries such as healthcare and IT. In recent years， overseas institutional investors have been keen on those sectors due to their potential for growth. Hong Kong could also use the stock trading link to develop more tailored financial products to lure more capital into the markets， Su told Xinhua News Agency. Nevertheless， Yi Xianrong， a professor at the School of Economics at Qingdao University， said that the imperfect system in the A-share market and the sustained low exchange rate of the yuan are among the biggest reasons why foreign investors are reluctant to invest in Chinese stock markets.
“Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen programs have offered Chinese stock markets a chance to attract foreign capital， but whether or not that plan succeeds depends on the healthy development of the market itself，” Yi wrote in a column for China News Agency.
According to Yi， the drastic volatility exhibited in the stock market during 2015 has greatly dampened investor confidence and， at the same time， has exposed many serious problems such as sudden IPO halts， insider trading and unsound delisting and supervision systems. These problems not only undermine domestic investor confidence， but also affect overseas investors’ confidence in the market， he said.
“Now， the launch of the Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect offers fresh opportunities for the markets， but the real boom can only occur in a law-based， market-determined and international market，” Yi said.
Although excited over the news， Lin， the software engineer， said he is guardedly optimistic about the markets. He said the actual launch is unlikely to trigger an avalanche of funds into China’s stock markets.