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在水电站梯级建设条件下,上游电站控制洪水下泄流量可减少下游施工导流风险、降低工程投资,但同时增加了上游电站的防洪风险和控泄成本。为有效地均衡上下游风险,合理分配二者利益,本文从梯级系统总体角度出发,通过对控泄参与双方控泄成本和效益的货币化,分析风险承担方和收益方在达成风险补偿共识过程中的博弈行为,建立基于激励与参与约束下的风险补偿模型,选择最优控泄流量并预计该流量下的补偿结果,实现上游控泄条件下施工导流风险补偿决策的优化。最后通过算例分析,验证该风险补偿模型是可行的、有效的。
Under cascade construction conditions of hydropower stations, flood discharge under the control of upstream power plants can reduce the risk of downstream construction diversion and reduce project investment, but meanwhile increase flood control risk and cost of upstream power plants. In order to balance the upstream and downstream risks effectively and allocate their benefits reasonably, this article analyzes the risk-taking consensus and the beneficiary’s risk-taker consensus by monetizing both the cost and benefit of controlling venting by controlling the vent, , The risk compensation model based on the incentive and participation constraints is established, the optimal control flow is selected, and the compensation result under this flow rate is predicted, so as to optimize the decision-making of risk compensation for construction diversion under the condition of upstream control. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify that the risk compensation model is feasible and effective.