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国际比较表明,中等收入水平向高收入水平的跨越阶段,也是充满增长分化的阶段。转型时期面临三方面的不确定性和风险:(1)工业比重下降的同时伴随工业萧条,城市化成本病阻碍内生增长动力形成;(2)服务业作为工业化分工结果的从属态势不能得到根本扭转,以知识生产配置为核心的服务业要素化趋势不能得到强化,最终导致服务业转型升级无法达成;(3)作为门槛跨越基石的消费效率补偿环节缺失,知识生产配置和人力资本结构升级路径受阻。我们认为,以知识要素和人力资本要素积累为核心的效率模式重塑,是跨越中等收入阶段的根本任务,面对转型时期门槛跨越的困难,中国应顺遂服务业的要素化趋势,在防止服务业盲目扩张、做好工业/服务业协调推进的同时,通过制度改革促进效率模式重塑。
International comparison shows that the leapfrogging phase of middle-income to high-income levels is also a stage full of growth and differentiation. In the transitional period, there are three aspects of uncertainty and risk: (1) industrial declines accompanied by industrial slump and urbanization costs impede the formation of endogenous growth momentum; (2) the subordination of service industries as a result of industrial division of labor can not be fundamentally achieved (3) As a cornerstone of the threshold, the compensation for consumption efficiency is missing, and the production configuration of knowledge and the upgrading path of human capital structure are not enough Blocked In our opinion, reshaping the efficiency model centered on the accumulation of knowledge elements and human capital elements is the basic task of striding over the middle-income stage. Facing the difficulty of crossing the threshold during the transition period, China should smoothly follow the trend of factorization of service industry and prevent service- While the industry is expanding blindly and doing a good job of coordinating and promoting industrial and service industries, it will also promote the reform of its efficiency model through institutional reforms.