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当前国内要素价格改革呼声很高,其中能源价格改革更为迫切。本文利用MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对中国经济发展的影响。研究表明,提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因在于能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在国内生产总值中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期国内生产总值下降的主要原因。
At present, the reform of domestic factor prices is very loud, in which energy price reform is more urgent. In this paper, we use the MCHUGE model to study how to improve the impact of energy prices on China’s economic development. Research shows that raising energy prices can significantly reduce China’s energy intensity in both the short and long term because the increase of energy prices optimizes the structure of China’s economy and the proportion of secondary industry, especially heavy industry, in GDP declines and decreases The overall energy consumption. However, higher energy prices have a greater negative impact on the macroeconomy. The resulting decline in exports and the drop in investment demand are the main reasons for the short-term and long-term GDP declines, respectively.