论文部分内容阅读
The Cross-Straits Service Trade Agreement（CSSTA） should come as more favorable news regarding the sustainable development of Taiwan， and it will bring more benefits to Taiwan than to the mainland. It is not hard to understand why.
The agreement is important to Taiwan—an economy mainly relying on its service industry. In 2012， the service industry accounted for 69.2 percent of its GDP， and 58.8 percent of Taiwanese work in the sector. The average wage of Taiwan’s service industry is also higher than those in other industries. Against this backdrop， both sides across the Straits must create a better environment for service trade so as to ensure cross-Straits trade can come into full play in stimulating economic development on both sides and benefit Taiwan’s economy. Since the trade volume of goods between the two sides is already huge， reaching $197.3 billion in 2013， the focus of future cross-Straits trade must be on services. The development of service trade will also deepen cooperation in trade in goods and improve the efficiency of the process.
The bigger beneficiary
The CSSTA will benefit Taiwan because the Chinese mainland has a larger and more stable economy than Taiwan. Even though the two sides were equally open to each other， Taiwan’s industries and the whole economy would benefit much more than the mainland. In 1997， when Asian financial turmoil broke out， the Chinese mainland’s GDP was 3.2 times that of Taiwan， and by 2012， this gap had widened to 16.8 times. Four mainland provinces—Guangdong， Jiangsu， Shandong and Zhejiang—had their GDP exceed that of Taiwan in 2012. Fujian Province， just opposite the Taiwan Straits， had a total GDP that was only 38 percent of Taiwan’s in 2008， but in 2012， Fujian’s GDP had risen to 64 percent of that in Taiwan. Meanwhile， in 2012， six provincial-level regions on the mainland had a per-capita GDP of more than $10，000. Their population totaled 217 million， 9.4 times that of Taiwan.
In terms of economic stability， Taiwan underwent a recession in both 1998 and 2009， while the mainland’s economy has continued to grow unabated. In fact， by the time the Asian financial crisis was in full swing between 1997 and 1998， the Chinese mainland had already started to act as a stabilizer to the overall economy in East Asia. In the wake of the U.S. sub-prime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis， China has played a similar role as a stabilizer to the global economy.
Entering the 21st century， the Chinese mainland has become a major source of global economic growth. Its contribution to world economic growth has reached 30 percent. Now， the world economy is in a period of low growth and the mainland’s economic growth has also slowed down. However， it still boasts the highest growth rate among major economies. As a market with the world’s second largest economic scale， the highest growth rate and a high level of stability， the Chinese mainland is of indubitable significance to any globally operating industry or individual corporation in the world today. For a latecomer in an industry， if it hopes to effectively improve its position， the best way is to be the first to enter and occupy a large market of high growth. By gaining a high market share and unshakable position in this market with comparatively mild competition， the latecomer can enhance its position in the industry， as the market has a much bigger share globally. By tapping the mainland market， for example， the Ting Hsin International Group， once unknown in the Taiwan food industry， has surged to become the top food company in Taiwan. Non-reciprocal levels of openness which have long existed in cross-Straits trade will also expand the possible benefits Taiwan will derive from the CSSTA. In terms of trade， investment， movement of labor and in all other aspects， the mainland is much more open to Taiwan than Taiwan is to the mainland. The mainland has fulfilled all its commitments as a WTO member to Taiwan， and Taiwanese companies have been enjoying equal and， in some cases， favorable treatment on the mainland. In contrast， Taiwan has been imposing strict access limits on commodities， capital and labor on mainland companies. Since Taiwan entered the WTO， most of its opening policies to the mainland have represented empty promises. Most of the industries it opens to the mainland are those in which it already possesses distinct advantages， while most of the industries not open to the mainland are those where the mainland holds the upper hand. At the beginning of 2009， 2，200 kinds of mainland commodities were still not allowed to enter the Taiwan market. In the early 1990s， trade deficit against Taiwan became a major threat for the balance of trade on the Chinese mainland： The mainland’s trade deficit against Taiwan in 1993 accounted for 93.9 percent of its total trade deficits for that year. Despite this， the mainland has never conducted any protectionist measures in cross-Straits trade. Since the two sides started negotiation and implementation of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement， the Chinese Government has maintained its policy of “equal and favorable” treatment to Taiwan for more than two decades. In the CSSTA， the Chinese mainland grants more favorable treatment to Taiwanese companies and residents than it does to other WTO members or foreign-invested enterprises. The favorable treatment is reflected in many ways： expanding market access； raising ceilings for Taiwan investment in joint ventures； relaxing qualifications for Taiwan-invested enterprises； and facilitating the flow of Taiwanese people to the mainland； as well as the offering of preferential measures to small and mediumsized companies and individual businesses from Taiwan.
Taiwan’s options
Regional economic integration is a current trend in international trade. With a declining role in the international economy， Taiwan cannot afford the price of such a trend. In 1987， Taiwan’s exports of goods topped other East Asian export powerhouses， i.e. Hong Kong， Singapore and South Korea， but in 2013， its exports of goods ranked only 20th in the world， moving back two places from the previous year and remaining behind the aforementioned three markets. Taiwan needs to participate more in the process of economic globalization， and the Chinese Government has provided such opportunities to Taiwan. East Asian economies have gained strong positions in global manufacturing industries， but the service trade—particularly the modern service trade featuring high added value and high technologies—still represents their weak point. Therefore， for such economies to improve their positions in the global economic structure， improving the competitiveness of their domestic service industries through enhancing regional cooperation has become the only workable route. Keeping this in mind， it is to be expected that the Chinese Government would give priority to granting favorable treatment to Taiwan， which China regards as being part of the family.
Since Taiwan has entered the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Service （GATS） while China is still in negotiations to enter the agreement and has obtained support from some key members from the European Union， Taiwan actually has only three viable options when considering its treatment of the mainland with regards to the service trade pact.
The first is to sign the CSSTA with the mainland so that it can enjoy priority treatment over other WTO members in the mainland market. In the meantime， it must open its service industry to the mainland.
Even if Taiwan does not sign the CSSTA with the mainland， it will nonetheless have to open the service industry to the mainland after the latter enters the GATS， and the openness of the Taiwanese market will be required to be higher than it would be under the CSSTA. In this eventuality， Taiwan will then enjoy merely the same treatment as other WTO members in the mainland market.
The third option is that Taiwan neither signs the CSSTA with the mainland， nor opens its service industry to the mainland. After the latter enters the GATS， in order to avoid opening its service sector to the mainland， Taiwan would be forced to quit the GATS， and then choose to lose access to the service sector of major world economies.
To Taiwan， it should be clear which option is the best.
The agreement is important to Taiwan—an economy mainly relying on its service industry. In 2012， the service industry accounted for 69.2 percent of its GDP， and 58.8 percent of Taiwanese work in the sector. The average wage of Taiwan’s service industry is also higher than those in other industries. Against this backdrop， both sides across the Straits must create a better environment for service trade so as to ensure cross-Straits trade can come into full play in stimulating economic development on both sides and benefit Taiwan’s economy. Since the trade volume of goods between the two sides is already huge， reaching $197.3 billion in 2013， the focus of future cross-Straits trade must be on services. The development of service trade will also deepen cooperation in trade in goods and improve the efficiency of the process.
The bigger beneficiary
The CSSTA will benefit Taiwan because the Chinese mainland has a larger and more stable economy than Taiwan. Even though the two sides were equally open to each other， Taiwan’s industries and the whole economy would benefit much more than the mainland. In 1997， when Asian financial turmoil broke out， the Chinese mainland’s GDP was 3.2 times that of Taiwan， and by 2012， this gap had widened to 16.8 times. Four mainland provinces—Guangdong， Jiangsu， Shandong and Zhejiang—had their GDP exceed that of Taiwan in 2012. Fujian Province， just opposite the Taiwan Straits， had a total GDP that was only 38 percent of Taiwan’s in 2008， but in 2012， Fujian’s GDP had risen to 64 percent of that in Taiwan. Meanwhile， in 2012， six provincial-level regions on the mainland had a per-capita GDP of more than $10，000. Their population totaled 217 million， 9.4 times that of Taiwan.
In terms of economic stability， Taiwan underwent a recession in both 1998 and 2009， while the mainland’s economy has continued to grow unabated. In fact， by the time the Asian financial crisis was in full swing between 1997 and 1998， the Chinese mainland had already started to act as a stabilizer to the overall economy in East Asia. In the wake of the U.S. sub-prime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis， China has played a similar role as a stabilizer to the global economy.
Entering the 21st century， the Chinese mainland has become a major source of global economic growth. Its contribution to world economic growth has reached 30 percent. Now， the world economy is in a period of low growth and the mainland’s economic growth has also slowed down. However， it still boasts the highest growth rate among major economies. As a market with the world’s second largest economic scale， the highest growth rate and a high level of stability， the Chinese mainland is of indubitable significance to any globally operating industry or individual corporation in the world today. For a latecomer in an industry， if it hopes to effectively improve its position， the best way is to be the first to enter and occupy a large market of high growth. By gaining a high market share and unshakable position in this market with comparatively mild competition， the latecomer can enhance its position in the industry， as the market has a much bigger share globally. By tapping the mainland market， for example， the Ting Hsin International Group， once unknown in the Taiwan food industry， has surged to become the top food company in Taiwan. Non-reciprocal levels of openness which have long existed in cross-Straits trade will also expand the possible benefits Taiwan will derive from the CSSTA. In terms of trade， investment， movement of labor and in all other aspects， the mainland is much more open to Taiwan than Taiwan is to the mainland. The mainland has fulfilled all its commitments as a WTO member to Taiwan， and Taiwanese companies have been enjoying equal and， in some cases， favorable treatment on the mainland. In contrast， Taiwan has been imposing strict access limits on commodities， capital and labor on mainland companies. Since Taiwan entered the WTO， most of its opening policies to the mainland have represented empty promises. Most of the industries it opens to the mainland are those in which it already possesses distinct advantages， while most of the industries not open to the mainland are those where the mainland holds the upper hand. At the beginning of 2009， 2，200 kinds of mainland commodities were still not allowed to enter the Taiwan market. In the early 1990s， trade deficit against Taiwan became a major threat for the balance of trade on the Chinese mainland： The mainland’s trade deficit against Taiwan in 1993 accounted for 93.9 percent of its total trade deficits for that year. Despite this， the mainland has never conducted any protectionist measures in cross-Straits trade. Since the two sides started negotiation and implementation of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement， the Chinese Government has maintained its policy of “equal and favorable” treatment to Taiwan for more than two decades. In the CSSTA， the Chinese mainland grants more favorable treatment to Taiwanese companies and residents than it does to other WTO members or foreign-invested enterprises. The favorable treatment is reflected in many ways： expanding market access； raising ceilings for Taiwan investment in joint ventures； relaxing qualifications for Taiwan-invested enterprises； and facilitating the flow of Taiwanese people to the mainland； as well as the offering of preferential measures to small and mediumsized companies and individual businesses from Taiwan.
Taiwan’s options
Regional economic integration is a current trend in international trade. With a declining role in the international economy， Taiwan cannot afford the price of such a trend. In 1987， Taiwan’s exports of goods topped other East Asian export powerhouses， i.e. Hong Kong， Singapore and South Korea， but in 2013， its exports of goods ranked only 20th in the world， moving back two places from the previous year and remaining behind the aforementioned three markets. Taiwan needs to participate more in the process of economic globalization， and the Chinese Government has provided such opportunities to Taiwan. East Asian economies have gained strong positions in global manufacturing industries， but the service trade—particularly the modern service trade featuring high added value and high technologies—still represents their weak point. Therefore， for such economies to improve their positions in the global economic structure， improving the competitiveness of their domestic service industries through enhancing regional cooperation has become the only workable route. Keeping this in mind， it is to be expected that the Chinese Government would give priority to granting favorable treatment to Taiwan， which China regards as being part of the family.
Since Taiwan has entered the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Service （GATS） while China is still in negotiations to enter the agreement and has obtained support from some key members from the European Union， Taiwan actually has only three viable options when considering its treatment of the mainland with regards to the service trade pact.
The first is to sign the CSSTA with the mainland so that it can enjoy priority treatment over other WTO members in the mainland market. In the meantime， it must open its service industry to the mainland.
Even if Taiwan does not sign the CSSTA with the mainland， it will nonetheless have to open the service industry to the mainland after the latter enters the GATS， and the openness of the Taiwanese market will be required to be higher than it would be under the CSSTA. In this eventuality， Taiwan will then enjoy merely the same treatment as other WTO members in the mainland market.
The third option is that Taiwan neither signs the CSSTA with the mainland， nor opens its service industry to the mainland. After the latter enters the GATS， in order to avoid opening its service sector to the mainland， Taiwan would be forced to quit the GATS， and then choose to lose access to the service sector of major world economies.
To Taiwan， it should be clear which option is the best.