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为探寻零售网络的演化规律,基于复杂自适应系统理论构建零售网络结构模型。通过对agent、环境以及交互规则的描述和分析,描述了零售网络结构;利用Multi-agent仿真方法模拟零售网络在平稳需求、递增需求、近似实际数据需求3种需求情况下的动态演化过程,分析零售网络零售商数目、平均适应度、均价、死亡率与新增率的演化规律。模拟结果表明,零售网络系统沿演化路径经过若干个周期循环之后达到一种稳定的状态,在近似实际数据需求和递增需求驱动下,系统表现出较大的波动性;零售商的平均适应度与产品成交均价不存在相关性,用演化的观点阐述长期价格战的不合理性;另外,零售商的死亡率与新增率的演化特征解释了现实零售网络在市场成熟时期“有退难进”的竞争特征。
To explore the evolution of retail networks, a retail network structure model was constructed based on a complex adaptive system theory. Through the description and analysis of the agent, environment and interaction rules, the retail network structure is described. The dynamic evolution process of the retail network under the three demands of stationary demand, increasing demand, and approximate actual data demand is simulated by using Multi-agent simulation method. The evolution of the number of retail online retailers, average fitness, average price, death rate and new rate. The simulation results show that the retail network system achieves a stable state after several cycles of the cycle along the evolution path. Driven by the approximate actual data demand and increasing demand, the system shows greater volatility; the average fitness of the retailer There is no correlation between the average transaction price of products, and the irrationality of long-term price wars is explained by an evolving perspective. In addition, the evolutionary characteristics of retailers’ mortality and new rates explain that real retail networks have experienced difficulties in market maturity. Into the “competition characteristics.”