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对经济运行的周期性扩张与衰退现象进行理论解释,是现代宏观经济学研究的重点之一。近年来,国内外学者利用宏观经济数据,展开了丰富的实证研究:国外学者则集中于经济周期的测定与预测、经济周期的波动特征及国际经济周期等三个方面;国内学者对经济周期的研究相对较晚,大多集中于利用改革开放以来我国宏观数据,对经济周期的划分、经济周期的影响因素以及地区协同性等三个方面进行实证研究。国外学者对于计量方法的原创性研究,以及对全球化时代国家间经济周期协同性的关注,值得我国学者在今后研究中予以借鉴。
The theoretical explanation of the cyclical expansion and decline of economic operations is one of the focuses of modern macroeconomics. In recent years, domestic and foreign scholars have made use of macroeconomic data to carry out a wealth of empirical research: foreign scholars focus on the measurement and prediction of the economic cycle, the fluctuation characteristics of the economic cycle and the international economic cycle. The domestic scholars’ The research is relatively late, most of which focus on the empirical research on three aspects of China’s macro-data since the reform and opening up, the division of the economic cycle, the influencing factors of the economic cycle and the regional synergy. Foreign scholars ’original research on measurement methods and their concern for the synergy of the economic cycles among countries in the globalized era are worth our scholars’ reference in future research.