系统动力学是处理信息反馈系统动态行为的方法论。从系统的结构出发,建立该系统的数学仿真模型,通过计算机模拟,得到系统的动态行为。林业生产周期长,生产条件千差万别,是一个非线性的复杂的系统,要搜集大量可靠的信息是比较困难的。而系统动力学对数据要求不是很高,只是利用数据把一些不可度量的数据如人的作用应用到实际模型中去。输入少量信息便可知道系统的发展趋势。本文模拟了1985年至2000年嘉鱼县意杨资源动态,对意杨的经营和利用具有重要意义。 System dynamics is a methodology that deals with the dynamic behavior of information feedback systems. Starting from the structure of the system, a mathematical simulation model of the system is established, and the dynamic behavior of the system is obtained through computer simulation. Long production cycle of forestry, production conditions vary widely, is a nonlinear and complex system, to collect a large number of reliable information is more difficult. The system dynamics on the data requirements is not very high, but the use of data to some of the unmeasurable data such as the role of human beings applied to the actual model. Enter a small amount of information to know the system’s development trend. This paper simulates the dynamics of poplar resources in Jiayu County from 1985 to 2000, which is of great significance to the operation and utilization of Poplar.