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近期来,人民币面临巨大的升值压力,贸易摩擦争端更甚。本文对2000年至2011年的季度数据进行分析,建立分布滞后模型,通过回归和检验得出结论:2005年7月汇率改制对中美贸易影响不显著,实际汇率的变动对中美贸易额影响较小。因此建议扩大内需,加快产业结构调整。
In the near term, the Renminbi is under tremendous pressure of appreciation and the trade friction dispute is even worse. This paper analyzes the quarterly data from 2000 to 2011, establishes the distribution lag model, and concludes by regression and test that the exchange rate reform in July 2005 has no significant effect on the trade between China and the United States. The effect of the real exchange rate on the trade volume between China and the United States Smaller. Therefore, it is suggested to expand domestic demand and speed up the adjustment of industrial structure.