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鉴于未来气候变化趋势对洮儿河流域水资源的影响,将直接关系到下游地区湿地保护、区域社会经济发展、白城市各河流与嫩江的河库连通工程等,以SWAT模型为研究手段,选取1988~1996年的流域实测数据,对SWAT模型进行率定和验证,基于率定好的模型分析气候变化情景下洮儿河的径流变化趋势。结果表明,SWAT模型具有较高的模拟精度,可用于洮儿河流域的径流模拟;在未来气候变化情景下,洮儿河流域的径流量(2020、2030、2040年代)比基准期(1990~1996年)稍有增加,其阶段径流量呈现先增后减的趋势。
In view of the impact of future climate change trends on the water resources of Taohe River Basin, it will be directly related to wetland protection in downstream areas, regional socio-economic development, river bank connectivity project between rivers in Baicheng City and Nenjiang River, and SWAT model The data from 1988 to 1996 were used to calibrate and validate the SWAT model. Based on the well-defined model, the trend of runoff in Tao River under climate change scenarios was analyzed. The results show that the SWAT model has high simulation accuracy and can be used for runoff simulation in Taoer River basin. In the future climate change scenarios, runoff in the Taoer River catchment (2020, 2030 and 2040) 1996) a slight increase in the stage of runoff showed the trend of first increase and then decrease.