论文部分内容阅读
目的应用前景理论针对药品质量一致性经济风险进行评价研究。方法首先对药品一致性经济风险的评价问题进行描述,然后基于前景理论的思想,计算制药企业仿制药研发项目不同市场情景的综合价值,即定量化描述针对不同市场情景的市场需求、预期收益的决策者综合心理感知;计算不同市场情景的情景概率权重,即定量化描述针对不同情景出现的可能性的决策者心理感知;最后依据市场情景综合价值、情景的概率权重、研发药品预期的药品一致性评分以及项目的成本投入,计算仿制药项目的综合前景值。结果根据不同仿制药研发项目的经济风险综合前景值,可以从中选择最优的仿制药研发项目。结论本文作者提出的基于前景理论的药品一致性经济风险评价模型,能够对仿制药项目的药品质量一致性经济风险进行有效的评价,为制药企业的仿制药研发项目选择提供有效的方法。
Objective To evaluate the economic risks of drug quality consistent with the prospect theory. The method first describes the evaluation of the economic risks of drug coherence. Then, based on the theory of prospect, the comprehensive value of different market scenarios of generic drug research and development project in a pharmaceutical enterprise is calculated. That is to say, the quantitative description of market demand and expected return for different market scenarios The decision-maker’s comprehensive psychological perception calculates the scenario probability weights of different market scenarios, that is, quantifies the decision makers’ psychological perceptions describing the possibility of different scenarios. Finally, based on the comprehensive value of the market scenario and the probability weight of the scenario, Sexual score and the project’s cost inputs, calculate the overall prospect of generic drug projects. Results Based on the overall economic risk of different generic drug research and development projects, the best generic drug research and development projects can be selected. Conclusion The model proposed by the author based on the prospect theory of drug consistency economic risk evaluation model can effectively evaluate the economic risks of generic drug quality and provide an effective method for pharmaceutical companies to choose generic drug research and development projects.