所谓历史,就是人的轨迹。人的路,经常有岔路口,历史也是。在以往的历史学家眼里,凡一件大事发生了,必定是必然的。他们的使命,就是找出为何必然的理由。但是实际上,历史中往往存在好些岔路口,之所以这样拐弯,而不是那样拐弯,往往取决于某些很偶然甚至很细微的因素。雨果说过,导致拿破仑最终 The so-called history, is the human track. People’s way, often have a fork in the road, history is too. In the eyes of historians in the past, where a major event has taken place, it must be inevitable. Their mission is to find out the reason why. However, in fact, there are often many crossroads in history. The reason why such a turn, not a turn, often depends on some occasional or even very subtle factors. Hugo has said that led to Napoleon eventually