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为了预测民航运行的安全水平,针对评价结果数据序列样本少、不确定性大的特点,选择灰色区间预测方法,建立了民航安全评价的区间预测模型.给出了民航安全指数计算结果,分析了民航运行的安全水平现状,展示了这一安全评价体系的功能和使用方式.通过实例验证了民航安全评价的灰色区间预测模型的正确性,给出了下一年度民航综合安全指数的预测区间.结果表明:灰色区间预测方法是可行的.
In order to predict the safety level of civil aviation operation, a gray interval forecasting method was chosen to reduce the sample number and uncertainty of evaluation data series, and the interval forecasting model of civil aviation safety evaluation was established. The calculation results of civil aviation safety index were given, The status quo of safety level of civil aviation operation is demonstrated, and the function and usage of this safety evaluation system are demonstrated. The correctness of the gray interval forecasting model of civil aviation safety assessment is verified by examples and the forecast interval of civil aviation safety index is given. The results show that gray interval prediction method is feasible.