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本文从金融领域和实体经济两个领域分析 ,在不同的制度安排下 ,外部冲击将对一国经济的稳定性产生怎样的影响以及这些影响的传导机制。主要结论有二 :第一 ,与政府干预的经济相比 ,全面自由化的经济具有最强的稳定性 ;第二 ,从保持经济体制转换过程中的稳定性角度看 ,自由化的最优先后次序应当是 :实体经济自由化、国内金融自由化、实行浮动汇率制和资本项目开放。
This article analyzes from two aspects of the financial sector and the real economy, under different institutional arrangements, how the external shocks will affect the stability of a country’s economy and the transmission mechanism of these influences. The main conclusions are twofold: first, compared with the government intervention, the economy of full liberalization has the strongest stability; secondly, from the point of view of stability in the process of economic system transformation, the highest priority of liberalization The order should be: the real economy liberalization, domestic financial liberalization, the implementation of a floating exchange rate system and the opening of capital account.