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目的 研究D湖地区水污染与人群恶性肿瘤死亡率之间的关系。方法 采用灰色系统分析方法。结果 建立了D湖饮水区人群恶性肿瘤死亡率的灰色系统预测模型 ,包括恶性肿瘤死亡率的GM (1,N)模型 :MR(t +1) =(9 9987E1+5 0 0 0 1E2 +10 8994E3 +1 1114E4 +16 5 10 2 9) e-0 0 0 70t- 9 9987E1- 5 0 0 0 1E2 - 10 8994E3 -1 1114E4 和相关因素的GM (1,1)模型群 :E1(t+1) =- 46 946 8e-0 0 0 58t+5 2 12 14,E2 (t +1) =4 6 114- 4 5 6 6 4e0 0 0 15t,E3 (t+1) =1 1389- 1 12 12e0 0 0 65t,E4 (t+1) =5 5 4 5 86 7- 5 49 80 0 6e0 0 0 16t,并对其 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 10年的肿瘤死亡率进行了预测性评价。结论 在 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 10年 ,D湖饮水区人群的恶性肿瘤死亡率将呈缓慢下降趋势。
Objective To study the relationship between water pollution and mortality of malignant tumor in D Lake area. Methods Gray system analysis method. Results The gray system prediction model of malignant tumor mortality in drinking water area of D Lake was established, including GM (1, N) model of malignant tumor mortality: MR (t +1) = (9 9987E1 +5 0 0 1E2 +10 8994E3 +1 1114E4 +16 5 10 2 9) GM-1 (1,1) model group for e-0 0 0 70t- 9 9987E1- 5 0 0 0 1E2- 10 8994E3-1 1114E4 and related factors: E1 (t + 1 ) = - 46 946 8e-0 0 0 58t + 5 2 12 14, E2 (t +1) = 4 6 114- 4 5 6 6 4e0 0 0 15t, E3 (t + 1) = 1 1389- 1 12 12e0 0 0 65t, E4 (t + 1) = 5 5 4 5 86 7- 5 49 80 0 6e0 0 0 16t, and the predictive value of their tumor mortality from 2000 to 2010 was evaluated. Conclusion From 2000 to 2010, the mortality rate of malignant tumor in D Lake drinking water area will decrease slowly.