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为了明确判断公路交通资源在区域经济中的配置效率并据此提出相应的有效决策,在分析公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平测度变量的基础上,运用主成分分析法对1993~2015年陕西公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平各测度变量的标准化数据进行降维,以获取测度公路交通供给和区域经济发展的2列综合数据,然后对其取对数以消除其异方差并降低波动性使其适用于Granger因果性分析,并对Granger因果性检验的结果进行经济学解释。研究结果表明:1993~2015年期间的任一年,陕西公路交通之前3年每年的供给是该年区域经济发展的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给未处于过度配置状态;陕西区域经济前1年的发展水平是该年公路交通供给配置的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给配置长期处于短缺状态;综上2个方面,相对于区域经济的不断发展,陕西公路交通资源的配置长期低于合理水平;为使陕西区域经济中的私人品和作为(准)公共品的公路交通资源实现合理的配置,陕西公路交通应大力增加其供给规划。
In order to make a clear judgment of the allocation efficiency of highway traffic resources in the regional economy and make corresponding effective decision accordingly, on the basis of analyzing the variables of highway traffic supply and regional economic development level, using principal component analysis (PCA) Traffic supply and regional economic development level of the measured data to reduce the dimension of standardized variables to measure the road traffic supply and regional economic development of two comprehensive data, and then take a logarithm to eliminate its heteroscedasticity and reduce volatility to Applies to Granger causality analysis, and economic interpretation of the results of Granger causality test. The results show that the annual supply of Shaanxi road traffic in the three years before 1993 is the Granger cause of the regional economic development in that year. It can be seen that the supply of highway traffic in Shaanxi is not over-allocated. In the year before Shaanxi’s regional economy The level of development is the Granger cause of road traffic supply in that year, showing that the supply of road transport in Shaanxi is in a state of shortage for a long time. To sum up, in terms of two aspects, relative to the continuous development of regional economy, the allocation of road traffic resources in Shaanxi has long been below a reasonable level In order to realize the rational allocation of private goods in Shaanxi regional economy and the road traffic resources as (quasi) public goods, Shaanxi road traffic should greatly increase its supply planning.