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本文基于2001~2013年国房景气指数和货币供应量、实际利率的月度数据,建立VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数研究了货币政策和房地产市场之间的关系。结果表明:货币供应量和实际利率是引起国房景气指数变化的格兰杰原因,国房景气指数变化的自贡献度远大于货币政策的影响。这对政府制定和实施房地产调控政策有一定的借鉴意义。
Based on the monthly data of national housing sentiment index, money supply and real interest rate from 2001 to 2013, this paper establishes VAR model and studies the relationship between monetary policy and real estate market through Granger causality test and impulse response function. The result shows that the money supply and the real interest rate are the Granger causes of the change of the national housing sentiment index. The self-contribution of the change of the national housing sentiment index is far greater than that of the monetary policy. This has some reference to the government to formulate and implement the real estate regulation and control policy.