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目的评估江西省由输入性疟疾病例引起本地继发传播的潜在风险及相关影响因素,为推动全省实现消除疟疾目标,调整监测重点地区和风险人群提供科学依据。方法采用德尔菲法(Delphi method)建立江西省输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评价指标体系,并确定指标权重。收集江西省2012-2015年100个县(市、区)疟疾疫情、传疟媒介和防控能力等数据资料,分别计算各县(市、区)疟疾传播潜能指数(TPI)、消除疟疾防控能力指数(ICI)和疟疾传播风险指数(MRI),并绘制江西省输入性疟疾引起继发传播的潜在风险地图。结果全省疟疾传播风险指数前10位的县(市、区)分别为临川区(2.131)、信州区(1.609)、九江县(1.404)、章贡区(1.365)、丰城市(1.225)、青山湖区(1.184)、于都县(1.171)、定南县(1.018)、浔阳区(1.015)和珠山区(1.006)。风险较高的地区主要分布在地级市所在辖区以及流动人口较多的县(市、区)。结论江西省存在因输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险,且流动人口越多、防控能力越薄弱的地区,其风险也随之增加。
Objective To assess the potential risk and related factors of local secondary transmission of imported malaria cases in Jiangxi Province and provide scientific evidence for promoting the goal of eliminating malaria in the whole province and adjusting the key monitoring areas and risk groups. Methods Delphi method was used to establish the risk assessment index system of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province, and the indicator weights were determined. The data of malaria epidemic, malaria transmission and prevention and control of malaria in 100 counties (cities and districts) from 2012 to 2015 in Jiangxi Province were collected, and the malaria transmission potential index (TPI) of counties (cities and districts) Ability index (ICI) and malaria transmission risk index (MRI), and map out potential risks of secondary transmission of imported malaria in Jiangxi Province. Results The top 10 counties (cities and districts) of malaria transmission risk index in the province were Linchuan (2.131), Shinshu (1.609), Jiujiang (1.404), Zhanggong (1.365) and Fengcheng (1.225) , Castle Peak Lake District (1.184), Yudu County (1.171), Dingnan County (1.018), Shenyang District (1.015) and Zhu Shan District (1.006). High-risk areas are mainly located in prefecture-level cities where the area and the floating population more counties (cities, districts). Conclusions Jiangxi Province has the risk of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria and the risk is also increased in the areas where the floating population is more vulnerable and the prevention and control ability is weakened.