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[背景]未来的气候变化可能通过气候引起的气象、大气化学以及空气中排放物的变化造成空气质量下降。很少有研究针对气候变化、空气质量与人类健康的潜在关系建立明确的模型,而基于选择的模型的估计值敏感度的研究则更少。[目的]评估用于估计气候变化带来臭氧(O3)相关的人类健康影响的关键模型选择的灵敏度。[方法]分析了7个模型系统,其中气候变化模型被联系到空气质量模型、5项人口预测值以及多个浓度的响应函数。采用美国环境保护署(EPA)的环境效益描述和分析程序(BenMAP),作者估算了根据给定的每一组选择模型的组合,模拟了2000年到大约2050年之间的气候变化给美国带来的臭氧相关的未来健康影响。作者选用的健康效应和浓度响应函数与美国环保署2008年对国家环境空气质量标准规定的O3浓度的监管影响分析中所采用的函数相匹配。[结果]不同方法学选择的组合估计的气候变化导致的臭氧相关的全国死亡人数范围从减少大约600人死亡到增加2500人死亡(尽管大多数情况是增加死亡)。气候变化及空气质量模型的选择反映了不确定性的最大来源,其他模型选择的影响较小,但仍然具有相当大的影响。[结论]要强调使用整合方法,而不是依赖于任何一组模型选择,来评估气候变化造成的、臭氧相关的人类健康影响的潜在风险。
[Background] Future climate change may reduce the air quality through climate-induced meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and changes in air emissions. Few studies have established a clear model of the potential relationship between climate change, air quality and human health, while less research has done about the sensitivity of estimates based on selected models. [Purpose] To assess the sensitivity of the key model choices used to estimate the health effects of ozone associated with climate change on ozone (O3). [Method] Seven model systems were analyzed, in which climate change models were linked to air quality models, five population projections and response functions at multiple concentrations. Using EPA’s Environmental Benefit Description and Analysis program (BenMAP), the authors estimate that based on the combination of each set of selection models given, the effects of climate change from 2000 to about 2050 on the United States Coming ozone related future health effects. The authors selected health effects and concentration response functions to match the functions used by the EPA in 2008 for the regulatory impact analysis of O3 concentrations set by the national ambient air quality standards. [Results] The estimated number of ozone-related deaths due to climate change estimated by the combination of different methodological options ranged from a decrease of about 600 deaths to an increase of 2 000 deaths (albeit in most cases increasing deaths). The choice of climate change and air quality models reflects the largest source of uncertainty, with less impact from other model choices, but still has a considerable impact. [Conclusions] Emphasis should be placed on using an integrated approach rather than relying on any one set of model options to assess the potential risks of ozone-related human health effects from climate change.