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油价在将来究竟是涨还是跌?经济学家们的看法大相径庭。一方面,一些人认为,目前世界经济增长势头向好,预计将带来大量的石油需求;并且从短期看,石油加工能力瓶颈问题不能解决,主要产油地区地缘政治因素依然活跃,这些都将导致原油价格的上涨;而另一方面,有人预测,随着供需关系好转,油价继续下行机率较大,同时随着全球资金流动性开始收紧,热钱的撤出将导致资源类商品的价格回落。在众说纷纭的情况下,笔者试图对世界石油价格的短期和中长期走势作出预测。
Oil prices in the future is up or down? Economists have very different views. On the one hand, some people think that the present world economic growth is on the rise and is expected to bring about a large amount of oil demand. In the short term, the bottleneck problem of petroleum processing capacity can not be solved and the geopolitical factors in major oil-producing regions are still active. Leading to rising crude oil prices. On the other hand, some people predict that as the relationship between supply and demand improves, oil prices will continue to have a greater downside. At the same time as the global liquidity begins to tighten, the withdrawal of hot money will lead to a drop in the prices of resource-based commodities . In the case of divergent opinions, the author attempts to make a prediction of the short-term and long-term medium-term trends in world oil prices.