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(一)引言在70年代宏观经济学被迅速彻底地改变了:理性预期假说得到发展与应用,出现了经济周期均衡理论,对经济政策进行宏观经济计量评价中的问题和问题的解答得以澄清。这些进展主要归功于一位研究者:罗伯特·小卢卡斯。本文阐述了这些发展及卢卡斯对其的贡献。卢卡斯对宏观经济学之外的其他研究领域也作出了重要的贡献,本文对此仅略加论述。(二)理性预期假说各种(代理者)有关未来的预期对他们许多目前的决定是非常重要
(I) Introduction In the 1970s, macroeconomics was rapidly and completely changed: the rational expectation hypothesis has been developed and applied, and the theory of economic cycle equilibrium has emerged. The answers to the questions and problems in the macroeconometric evaluation of economic policies have been clarified. These advances are largely attributed to a researcher: Robert Little Lucas. This article explains these developments and their contribution to Lucas. Lucas also made an important contribution to other areas of research beyond macroeconomics, which is only briefly discussed in this article. (B) Rational Expectations Hypotheses The expectations of the various (agents) about the future are important to many of their current decisions