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近期人民币汇率波动明显,纵观我国出口贸易流向,虽然香港地区、美国、日本、韩国、德国占据我国出口的前5位,但所占份额都呈现不同程度的下降,在此背景下,文章研究人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易流向的影响效应。文章拓展了“2-2-2”结构假设,构建理论模型来探讨汇率变动对出口贸易流向的影响,并选取21个典型国家来进行实证分析,结论表明:整体层面上人民币升值对我国出口贸易流向存在显著的负向影响,但从国别层面而言,对于发达国家的影响程度高于发展中国家或新兴经济体。据此,文章提出健全人民币汇率形成机制、提高出口产品的国际竞争力等政策启示。
Recently, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated significantly. Looking at the flow of China’s export trade, although Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany accounted for the top 5 of China’s exports, the share of these exports dropped in varying degrees. Against this background, The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Export Trade Flow in China. The paper expands the hypothesis of “2-2-2 ” structure and constructs a theoretical model to explore the impact of exchange rate changes on the export trade flows. 21 typical countries are selected to conduct empirical analysis. The conclusion shows that: on the whole, The direction of export trade has a significant negative impact, but at the country level, the impact on developed countries is higher than that of developing countries or emerging economies. Accordingly, the article puts forward some policy implications such as improving the mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation and enhancing the international competitiveness of export products.