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将企业成本最小化目标与碳夹点分析技术相结合,以优先成本作为中国电源结构调整的依据。以2010年为基准年份、以2020年为目标年份,提出了中国电力部门进行电源结构调整的新思路。研究结果表明:水电的优先成本最低,其次是天然气发电和新型煤电,因此应优先发展这三类电源;尽管可再生能源发电具有较高的环境效益,但是其优先成本较高,若不对之加大支持力度,则2020年之前中国可再生能源发电的市场份额不会增加。
Combine the goal of minimizing the cost of the enterprise with carbon pinch analysis technology and take the preferential cost as the basis for the structural adjustment of China’s power supply. Taking 2010 as the base year and 2020 as the target year, a new idea of power structure adjustment in China’s power sector was put forward. The results show that hydropower has the lowest priority cost, followed by natural gas power generation and new coal-fired power generation, so these three power sources should be prioritized. Although renewable energy power generation has high environmental benefits, its higher priority cost is higher. If not, Increase their support, the market share of China’s renewable energy power generation will not increase until 2020.