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持续推进城市化是当前政府的施政重点,木材价格事关森林资源的合理开采与生态安全,城市化进程推动木材价格上涨。截取中国1978年~2013年城市化率和木材价格数据,建立向量自回归模型,并运用协整理论、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术检验了木材价格、城市化与对外开放度三者的动态关系。结果显示:三者存在长期的均衡关系;城市化率和对外开放度对木材价格的影响是正向相关;城市化率对木材价格的影响作用小于对外开放度的影响。
Continued to promote urbanization is the current government’s focus of governance, timber prices related to the rational exploitation of forest resources and ecological security, urbanization process to promote timber prices. China’s urbanization rate and wood price data were intercepted from 1978 to 2013 in China and a vector autoregressive model was established. The co-integration theory, vector error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition technique were used to test the effect of wood price, urbanization and openness The dynamic relationship between the three. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three; the urbanization rate and the degree of opening to the outside world are positively correlated with the price of timber; the effect of the urbanization rate on the price of wood is less than the impact of the degree of opening to the outside world.