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目的研究麻疹疫苗高覆盖率情况下,人群的麻疹抗体消长动态变化。方法对浙江省1989年与2004年的各年龄组人群麻疹血凝抑制(HI)抗体几何平均滴度(GMT),以建立数学模型的方法进行分析。结果建立的两个不同时期的数学模型拟合优度理想,直观地反映了目前及15年前各年龄组人群的HI抗体动态变化。虽然各年龄组人群的麻疹HI抗体GMT值均呈下降趋势,但现阶段各年龄组人群的GMT值要较15年前下降3.6左右。结论今后人群的麻疹HI抗体GMT值还将继续下降,在制订免疫策略时应该引起关注。
Objective To study the dynamic changes of measles antibody in population under the condition of high coverage of measles vaccine. Methods The geometric mean titer (HI) antibody titer of HI was measured in all age groups in Zhejiang Province in 1989 and 2004, and the mathematical model was established. Results The mathematic model of two different periods was fitted with the ideal of goodness, which directly reflected the dynamic changes of HI antibody in all age groups 15 years ago. Although the measles HI antibody GMT values of all age groups showed a downward trend, the GMT value of all age groups at this stage is about 3.6 lower than 15 years ago. Conclusion The GMT value of measles HI antibody will continue to decline in the future, and should pay attention when formulating immunization strategies.