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如今,房地产业已成为中国经济的核心命脉之一,对中国经济的健康、稳定的发展起着牵一发而动全身的作用。展望未来10年,房地产的发展空间依然很大,中国的城市化比率和国外相差甚远,“居者有其屋”的目标远没有实现,房地产仍然可以成为经济增长的重要动力。本文根据房地产销售的特点,通过构建动态汉密尔顿方程求其最优路径并运用计量经济的方法建立了相应的回归模型。通过对模型的研究,分析了影响房地产销售的主要因素及其存在的相关性,同时该模型还可以用于对未来房地产行业的发展情况进行预测,为未来房地产政策的制定提供一定的理论依据。
Today, the real estate industry has become one of the core lifelines of China’s economy and plays a leading role in promoting the healthy and steady development of China’s economy. Looking into the next 10 years, there is still room for real estate development. China’s urbanization rate is far from that of foreign countries. The goal of “home ownership” is far from being realized and real estate can still become an important driving force for economic growth. According to the characteristics of real estate sales, this paper establishes the corresponding regression model by constructing the dynamic Hamiltonian equation and finding the optimal path and using econometric methods. Through the study of the model, the main factors affecting the real estate sales and their correlations are analyzed. At the same time, the model can also be used to predict the future development of the real estate industry and provide some theoretical basis for the future real estate policy.