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为探析及定量化绕城高速交通事故影响因素,分析了合肥绕城高速公路事故特征,并重点对2处多发事故的交汇枢纽段事故进行描述,从环境角度归纳出白天、黑夜、天气、照度、能见度等10个因素对其安全性的影响,应用分类变量处理方法将其定义为10种指标,并进行赋值。结合Logistic模型理论,以合肥绕城高速2011年9月1日~2014年8月31日共计103起交通事故为建模数据,构建道路环境对绕城高速公路交通事故严重程度影响度量模型。结果表明:模型拟合度较好;事故时间段和事故天气是影响绕城高速事故严重性的重要因素,其中,白天死亡事故概率较低,其发生比是夜间的13%;晴天时,绕城高速死亡事故概率却较高,其发生比为不利天气的3.26倍。
In order to analyze and quantify the influencing factors of high-speed traffic accidents around the city, the accident characteristics of Hefei highway around the city are analyzed, and the accident of two junctions at multiple accidents are mainly described. The environmental factors such as day, night, weather, illuminance , Visibility and other 10 factors on its security, the application of variable processing methods defined as 10 kinds of indicators, and the assignment. Combined with Logistic model theory, a total of 103 traffic accidents were taken as modeling data from September 1, 2011 to August 31, 2014 in Hefei Expressway Ring Expressway to build a measurement model of the impact of road environment on the traffic accident severity of Ring Expressway. The results show that the fitting degree of the model is good. The accident time and accident weather are important factors affecting the seriousness of high-speed accidents around the city. Among them, the probability of fatal accidents in daytime is relatively low, which is 13% of the nighttime; The probability of high-speed death toll is higher, which is 3.26 times worse than unfavorable weather.