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目的应用季节性时间序列ARIMA模型建立手足口病发病趋势预测,为预警、早期防控手足口病流行提供依据。方法应用SPSS13.0对2002年4月-2011年3月8年的手足口病逐月发病率建立ARIMA模型。结果通过对参数和模型的拟合优度检验以及残差白噪声序列的检验,最终确定模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)12,其中AIC=235.855,BIC=245.942,LB统计量检验残差序列为白噪声序列。结论模型能够有效地预测手足口病发病趋势,对预警预测产生积极的指导作用。
OBJECTIVE: To establish the prediction of the incidence of HFMD by seasonal ARIMA model and provide the basis for early warning and early prevention and control of HFMD. Methods SPSS 13.0 was used to establish ARIMA model for monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from April 2002 to March 2011. Results The final goodness-of-fit test for the parameters and the model and the residual white noise test showed that ARIMA (1,0,0) (2,1,0) 12, AIC = 235.855 and BIC = 245.942 , LB statistic test residual sequence is white noise sequence. Conclusion The model can predict the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease effectively and has a positive guiding effect on the prediction of early-warning.