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出行者路径选择行为的研究对于城市交通工程和规划具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。传统的路径选择研究基于期望效用理论,但该理论存在着一些不足。前景理论能够较好地描述不确定性条件下的决策行为。首先在前景理论框架下,研究了路径选择模型中参考点的设置,将到达时间作为路径选择的参考点,并通过实际调查,研究了通勤者对不同参考点的设定。最后在参考点不变的情况下,研究了出发时刻对通勤者路径选择的影响。结果表明:前景理论比期望效用理论更加符合实际的路径选择行为,当收益或损失不大时,通勤者倾向于选择路况比较稳定的路径;而当面临的损失较大时,通勤者会选择路况不确定的路径。
The study of traveler’s route selection behavior has important theoretical and practical significance for urban traffic engineering and planning. The traditional path selection research is based on the expected utility theory, but there are some shortcomings in the theory. Foreground theory can describe the decision-making behavior under the condition of uncertainty. First of all, under the framework of the foreground theory, the setting of the reference point in the path selection model is studied. The arrival time is taken as the reference point of the path selection. Through the actual investigation, the commuter’s setting of different reference points is studied. Finally, under the condition of constant reference point, the influence of departure time on commuter route selection is studied. The results show that the foreground theory is more realistic than the expected utility theory, and commuters tend to choose a stable route when the gain or loss is not large. When the loss is large, commuters choose the road conditions Uncertain path.