论文部分内容阅读
以大兴安岭呼中林区为研究区,综合考虑影响林火发生的自然和人为因素,应用证据权重法,从众多的影响因素中,选取能反映地形(坡向、坡位指数)、气象(年均温、年降水量)、可燃物(1h,10h时滞地表死可燃物的载量、1h时滞地表死可燃物含水量)和人类活动(距道路的距离)等因素,分析林火发生的可能性。结果表明:呼中林区林火的发生存在一定的不确定性,但研究结果对该地区森林的管理仍具有很好的指导作用,可以为森林火险区划、森林可燃物优先处理区的选择提供科学依据。应加强森林可燃物的基础研究,尤其是森林可燃物载量的时空分布规律的探讨,提高空间数据的准确性,减少不确定性,从而更好地对林火的发生作出科学的预测。
Taking Huzhong forest area of Daxinganling as the research area, the natural and man-made factors influencing the forest fires were comprehensively considered. According to the weight of evidence method, the factors that can reflect the topography (slope, slope index), weather Average temperature, annual precipitation), combustibles (1h, 10h dead load of surface dead combustible material, 1h dead time surface dead combustibles water content) and human activities (distance from the road) and other factors, analysis of forest fire occurred The possibility of. The results show that there is some uncertainty in the occurrence of forest fires in Huzhong forest region, but the results still provide a good guide for forest management in this region, which can provide the choice of forest fire risk zoning and forest priority combustible area Scientific basis. The basic research on forest combustibles should be strengthened, especially on the distribution law of forest combustible loads, the accuracy of spatial data should be improved and the uncertainty should be reduced so as to make a scientific prediction of the occurrence of forest fires.