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自20世纪90年代初以来,与我国贸易往来密切的国家纷纷签订区域贸易协定(RTAs),而我国皆非会员国,这对我国的贸易效应影响如何?是否会影响我国的对外贸易关系和贸易结构?本研究通过构建引力模型,并藉1994—2010年21个国家的面板数据实证研究四个区域贸易协定对我国国际贸易的影响。结果发现:①NAFTA、EU对我国均会产生显著进口贸易转移效应,其中NAFTA的贸易转移效应最大;AFTA和SACM均会增加从我国的进口,没有贸易转移效应,其中AFTA使进口增加最大。②AFTA和SACM均会增加对我国出口,NAFTA会减少对我国出口,EU则没有显著出口效应。③AFTA和SACM对我国的净贸易转移效应都为正,会增进与我国的贸易关系,NAFTA和EU对我国有负的净贸易转移效应,会减少与我国的贸易关系。实证结果也表明,NAFTA和EU对我国有持续扩大的进口贸易转移效应,导致我国与这些国家的贸易关系逐渐下降;东亚地区国家和拉美国家有成为我国未来主要贸易伙伴的趋势,我国若能与南美共同市场及东盟各国签订双边自由贸易协定,将有助于拓展对外贸易。
Since the early 1990s, countries that have close trade ties with China have signed regional trade agreements (RTAs), and our country is not a member country. How will this affect the trade effect of China and whether it will affect China’s foreign trade relations and trade? Structure? This study constructs the gravity model and empirically studies the influence of the four regional trade agreements on China’s international trade through the panel data of 21 countries from 1994 to 2010. The results show that: 1 NAFTA and EU will have a significant effect on China’s import trade diversion, among which NAFTA will have the greatest trade diversion effect; AFTA and SACM will both increase imports from China and have no trade diversion effect, among which AFTA will make the largest increase in imports. Both AFTA and SACM will increase exports to China, NAFTA will reduce exports to China, and EU will have no significant export effect. 3AFTA and SACM have positive effects on China’s net trade transfer, and will increase trade relations with China. NAFTA and EU have a negative net trade transfer effect to China and will reduce trade relations with China. The empirical results also show that NAFTA and EU have a continuously expanding import trade diversion effect on China, leading to a gradual decline in China’s trade relations with these countries; East Asian countries and Latin American countries have become the trend of China’s future major trading partners, if our country can The signing of a bilateral free trade agreement between South American Common Market and ASEAN countries will help expand foreign trade.