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目的 调查估计深圳市性工作者和吸毒人群规模 ,分析影响评估结果的因素 ,为制定有针对性的艾滋病(AIDS)防治策略提供科学依据。方法 在 6个区中 ,分别应用乘数法对各区的性工作者和吸毒人群规模进行调查估计 ,将吸毒人群规模估计数与专家估计数和普查人数进行比较。结果 深圳市约有 6 370 6名性工作者和 2 174 1名吸毒者 ,两类高危人群中 ,特区内分别占 2 8 8%和 5 2 5 %。应用专家估计法和普查法获得的吸毒人群规模分别为 2 0 95 0名和 175 81名 ,与乘数法评估结果比较 ,分别相差 3 6 %和 19 1%。结论 乘数法是AIDS流行相关高危人群规模估计的一种较实用的方法 ,具有方法简便、结果可靠、费用较低、省时省力等优点。但应注意调查时间、指定机构在辖区的代表性、目标人群的识别及调查员培训和调查方法的标准化等因素 ,以减少评估结果的偏差。
Objective To investigate the scale of sex workers and drug addicts in Shenzhen and to analyze the factors influencing the assessment results so as to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted AIDS prevention and control strategies. Methods In six districts, the size of sex workers and drug addicts in all districts were surveyed by multiplier method. The scale of drug addicts was compared with the number of experts and census. As a result, there were about 6,370 sex workers and 2,174 drug users in Shenzhen City, accounting for 28.8% and 52.5% of the two categories of high-risk population respectively. The scale of drug abusers obtained by expert estimation and census was 20 05 0 and 175 81, respectively, which were 36% and 19 1% lower than those of the multiplier method respectively. Conclusion Multiplier method is a more practical method to estimate the scale of AIDS-related high-risk population. It has many advantages such as simple method, reliable result, low cost and time-saving. However, attention should be paid to factors such as the time of the survey, the representativeness of the designated agencies in the jurisdiction, the identification of the target population and the training of investigators and the standardization of survey methods to reduce the bias in the assessment results.