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随着经济增速放缓及劳动力成本上升,职工要求增加工资与企业渴望廉价劳动力的矛盾愈发明显。劳资冲突、职工群体性突发事件不断发生,对维护社会稳定带来严峻考验。通过统计分析2011-2015年间我国职工群体性突发事件,得出拖欠工资、管理不善、企业改制或搬迁、诉求提高工资待遇及不满工作条件、环境五个因素为导致职工群体性突发事件发生的主要原因。引入马尔科夫理论,计算职工群体性突发事件诱发因素的马尔科夫演化过程,得到趋势因子。并以2015年下半年为初始数据,对2016-2018年上半年职工群体性突发事件的原因变化趋势进行预测。针对预测结果,对欠薪事件、政企管理制度不完善等因素提出对策措施,为科学预防职工群体性突发事件提供技术支持。
As economic growth slows and labor costs rise, the contradiction between workers’ desire to increase wages and their desire for cheap labor has become increasingly evident. Labor-capital conflicts and contingencies of workers’ groups continue to occur, which poses a severe test for maintaining social stability. By statistical analysis of the mass incidents of workers in our country from 2011 to 2015, we can draw the conclusion that the five factors that led to the mass incidents of workers, such as arrears of wages, mismanagement, enterprise restructuring or relocation, demands to raise wages and dissatisfaction with working conditions and environment The main reason. The Markov theory was introduced to calculate the evolving process of Markovs, which is the inducing factor of group workers’ unexpected events, and the trend factor was obtained. And the second half of 2015 as the initial data, the 2016-2018 first half of the group of workers unexpected causes of change trends are predicted. According to the forecast result, this paper puts forward countermeasures to the factors such as the wage default incident and the imperfect management system of government and enterprises so as to provide technical support for the scientific prevention of the group unexpected events.