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为保障国家粮食安全,我国建立了粮食储备制度,并成为国家调控粮价的重要政策,对稳定国内粮食价格,保障居民生活起到了重要作用。本文以稻谷为例,运用1991-2014年我国稻谷价格与储备的相关数据,运用VAR模型对稻谷价格与储备变动的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,稻谷价格变动与储备变动之间不存在稳定的长期均衡关系,在短期内,二者存在相互的冲击效应,但随着作用期数的增加冲击效应逐渐减弱。对此,本文就稳定稻谷价格和完善稻谷储备政策提出相应建议。
In order to ensure national food security, China has established a system of grain reserves and has become an important policy of the state in controlling grain prices. It has played an important role in stabilizing domestic grain prices and protecting the livelihood of residents. In this paper, taking rice as an example, this paper uses the data of China’s rice price and reserve from 1991 to 2014, and uses VAR model to analyze the relationship between rice price and reserve change. The study found that there is no stable long-term equilibrium relationship between changes in rice prices and changes in reserves. In the short term, there exists a mutual impact effect between the two. However, the impact effect is weakened with the increase of the number of active periods. In this regard, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions on stabilizing rice prices and improving rice reserve policy.