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通过建立我国突发公共事件的多主体风险分担模式,从定量角度探讨该风险分担模式的运行机制。我国政府是突发公共事件的主要风险承担者或管理者。为了度量该机制下政府的应急准备金,不仅需要考虑其主体分布,还需要考虑其尾部分布。为了拟合其尾部分布,采用极值理论的GPD模型,不同类型突发公共事件的风险,GPD模型的形状参数可能处于不同区间。在考了政府援助点与阈值不同关系的基础上,探讨三种不同参数区间下政府应急准备金的度量问题。最后以我国云南省地震损失为例验证了多主体风险分担模式可行性,并度量政府对于地震这类突发公共事件风险的应急准备金。
By establishing a multi-agent risk sharing model for public emergencies in our country, this paper explores the operating mechanism of the risk sharing model from a quantitative perspective. Our government is the main risk taker or manager of public emergencies. In order to measure the government emergency reserve under this mechanism, it is necessary to consider not only its main distribution but also its tail distribution. In order to fit the tail distribution, the GPD model with extreme value theory and the risk of different types of unexpected public events, the shape parameters of the GPD model may be in different intervals. On the basis of examining the different relationship between the government aid point and the threshold, this paper discusses the measurement of the government emergency reserve in three different parameters. Finally, taking the earthquake loss in Yunnan as an example, this paper verifies the feasibility of multi-agent risk sharing model and measures the emergency reserve of the government for the risk of earthquake and other public emergencies.