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将东南沿海地区划分成七个地震区带,利用历史及现代地震资料,运用混合极值理论及最大似然法分析了各个地震区带的地震危险性.并采用预测检验的方法确定了各个地震区带的危险阈值,对各地震区未来三年的中小地震及未来五年的中强地震的危险性分别给出了定量的估计.
This paper divides the southeast coastal area into seven seismic zones and uses the historical and modern seismic data to analyze the seismic risk of each seismic zone using the mixed extremum theory and the maximum likelihood method. The danger threshold of the zone gives a quantitative estimate of the risk of the medium and small earthquakes in the next three years and the risk of the moderate earthquakes in the next five years in each earthquake area.