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在内含房地产市场的动态随机一般均衡模型中,从消息冲击的角度,详细讨论了与贷款价值比有关的消息冲击和未预期到的冲击对我国房地产市场的影响,并比较了不同货币政策下消息冲击和未预期到的冲击所产生的动态效应。研究发现:(1)消息冲击与未预期到的冲击的宏观经济效应存在显著的差异;(2)消息冲击通过预期的自我实现机制引起了实际房地产价格的持续攀升;(3)在消息冲击的背景下,相对于盯住混合价格指数的货币政策而言,将实际房地产价格作为盯住目标的货币政策具有更好的稳定效应。因此,政府可以通过引导民众形成正确的预期,并将房地产价格作为货币政策盯住的对象,进而可以积极利用消息冲击的作用来实现稳定房地产市场的目的。
In the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate market, this paper discusses in detail the impact of news shocks and unanticipated shocks on China’s real estate market from the perspective of the impact of the loan value, and compares the effects of different monetary policies The dynamic effects of news and unexpected shocks. The results show that: (1) there is a significant difference in macroeconomic effects between news shocks and unanticipated shocks; (2) news shocks have caused real estate prices to continue to climb through the expected self-realization mechanism; (3) In the background, the actual real estate price will have a better stabilizing effect on the monetary policy as a peg to the target, relative to the monetary policy that is pegged to the mixed price index. Therefore, the government can guide the people to form the correct expectation, and take the real estate price as the object of monetary policy, so that the purpose of stabilizing the real estate market can be achieved by actively using the impact of the news.