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针对某大型地下水封储油洞库规模大、工程施工技术复杂、安全性要求高、不可预见风险因素多的特点,对模糊网络分析法进行了改进,并应用于该洞库施工风险评价。基于指标体系的全面性、可行性、客观性等原则,建立了施工风险两级评价指标体系,并对二级指标进行单因素评价,得到模糊关系矩阵;经过计算进而得到该洞库施工风险的整体风险水平和各个风险因素相对于整体风险的重要度排序,且综合评价结果为较高风险;针对重要度排序高的风险因素,分别提出了具体的风险控制措施。研究成果可为今后国内地下水封储油洞库施工过程中的风险分析与控制提供有益的借鉴和参考。
Aiming at the characteristics of a large groundwater sealing and storage oil cave reservoir, such as large scale, complicated engineering construction technology, high safety requirements and many unforeseeable risk factors, the fuzzy network analysis method is improved and applied to the construction risk assessment of the underground reservoir. Based on the comprehensiveness, feasibility and objectivity of the index system, a two-level evaluation index system of construction risk was established, and the single-factor evaluation of the second-level index was carried out to obtain the fuzzy relation matrix. After calculation, the construction risk The overall level of risk and the importance of each risk factor relative to the overall risk are ranked and the result of the comprehensive evaluation is higher risk. Specific risk control measures are proposed for the risk factors with high priority ranking. The research results can provide useful reference and reference for risk analysis and control in the construction of groundwater sealed storage caves in the future.