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上世纪60年代至80年代末期前,日本堪称经济成功的典范。但是,到了90年代,日本却出现了长达10多年的经济衰退。那么,日本是怎样走到这一步的呢?凯恩斯理论可以为我们提供中肯而有益的教诲。教训一,投机泡沫的破灭能够对经济形势造成严重的影响。亲眼目睹了1929年股市危机的凯恩斯曾经指出,金融市场的崩溃会极大地削弱表面上看起来运转良好的经济,特别是对人们的心理产生不良影响。在日本,证券市场的崩溃,地产泡沫破灭和银行机构垮台后,经济繁荣和人们对经济保持了数十年的乐观信心便土崩瓦解,取而代之的是经济衰退和人们忧虑的心情,从而使商业气氛更加恶化。教训二,对经济前景的预测直接影响到生产规模和就业。凯恩斯强调,企业领导人是依据自己未来收入的预测来确定其投资水平的,如果企业领导人对经济前景的预测比较悲观,他便会限制投资以减少风险,这将直接影响到就业。日本正是这种情况:
From the 1960s to the late 1980s, Japan was an example of economic success. However, by the 1990s, Japan experienced a recession lasting more than 10 years. So, how did Japan come to this step? Keynesian theory can provide us with pertinent and helpful teachings. Lessons learned 1. The collapse of the speculative bubble can have a serious impact on the economic situation. Keynes, who witnessed the stock market crisis of 1929, had pointed out that the collapse of financial markets would greatly weaken the seemingly healthy economy, especially the psychology of people. In Japan, after the collapse of the securities market, the burst of the real estate bubble and the collapse of banking institutions, the economic boom and the optimism that people have been maintaining the economy for decades have collapsed and replaced by the mood of recession and anxiety, making the business climate even more deterioration. Lesson Two, the prediction of economic prospects directly affects the scale of production and employment. Keynes emphasized that business leaders determine their level of investment based on their own future income projections. If business leaders forecast a more pessimistic economic outlook, they will limit their investments to reduce risks, which will directly affect employment. Japan is the case: