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2010年随着世界经济的好转,棉花需求旺盛。上半年整个棉花市场异常火爆,籽棉价格、皮棉价格一路上涨,分别达到了近几年的历史新高。棉花进口大幅增加,纺织品出口形势明显好转,棉花供需形势较为紧张。尽管国家下发棉花进口配额,但由于市场对棉花资源中长期短缺的预期较强,对抑制棉花价格过快上涨作用不大。展望后期,2009/10棉花年度就要结束,全球棉花供应紧张的状况仍然没有改变,后期国际棉花价格仍然会保持高位震荡。而国内市场上,需求仍然旺盛,但由于新年度植棉面积持平略减,且因为低温天气影响,新棉上市时间预计普遍推后,且产量难有大的突破。预计在新棉上市前几个月国内棉花价格仍将保持高位。
In 2010, with the improvement of the world economy, cotton demand is strong. In the first half of the year, the entire cotton market was unusually hot. The price of seed cotton and lint cotton went up all the way to the highest level in recent years. Cotton imports increased significantly, the textile export situation improved significantly, the cotton supply and demand situation is more tense. Although the quota of cotton imports is issued by the state, due to the strong market expectation on the medium and long-term shortage of cotton resources, there is not much effect on curbing the excessive rise of cotton prices. Looking ahead, the 2009/10 cotton season is coming to an end, and the global cotton supply situation remains unchanged. In the latter part of the world, the international cotton price will still remain high and volatile. On the domestic market, however, demand is still strong. However, due to a slight reduction in the cotton planting area in the new year and due to the impact of cold weather, the time-to-market for new cotton is expected to be generally postponed with little major breakthrough in output. Domestic cotton prices are expected to remain high in the months leading up to the new cotton market.