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针对西南水电富集地区大小水电抢占输电通道外送电力的问题,构建了基于决策树的大中型水电与小水电长期协调调度模型,以水电总体可消纳电量最大为目标,以确定性逐次优化方法(POA)对历史长系列水文资料进行模拟调度,在此基础上采用决策树挖掘大小水电长期协调调度规则,在应用阶段,结合CFS降雨预报信息,预报大中型水电站径流和小水电发电能力,并作为决策树输入,以获得面临时段大中型水电站的决策出力。云南省德宏地区大规模大、小水电混合分区实例应用结果表明,该模型能够有效利用具有良好调节能力的大中型水电站协调大小水电运行,提高外送通道利用率,为电力调度部门提供了一种良好的大小水电长期协调调度方法。
In order to solve the problem that large and small hydropower stations in southwest China’s hydropower stations can seize power transmission channels, a long-term coordinated dispatch model based on decision trees for large and medium-sized hydropower stations and small hydropower stations is established. With the objective of maximizing the total hydropower consumption, Method (POA) to simulate a long series of historical hydrological data. On this basis, the decision tree is used to excavate long-term coordination rules of large and small hydropower stations. In the application stage, CFS rainfall forecast information is used to predict the runoff and hydropower generation capacity of large- And as a decision tree input, in order to obtain the face of large and medium-sized hydropower station decision-making output. The application results of the large-scale and small-scale hydropower complex zoning in Dehong district of Yunnan province show that the model can effectively utilize the large and medium-sized hydropower stations with good regulation capacity to coordinate the operation of large and small hydropower and improve the utilization of outgoing routes, providing a Long-term coordination of dispatch methods of good size hydropower.