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利用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次检验法分析了紫荆关流域历年最大洪峰流量、次洪总量和洪水过程线的变化趋势,洪峰和洪量有显著下降趋势,洪水过程线有从尖瘦型向平坦型变化的趋势.探讨了影响洪水过程变化的降雨因素和下垫面因素.降雨量和降雨强度的变化趋势不明显,而下垫面变化明显,由土地利用变化引起的土壤蓄水容量增加、流域平均下渗率增大,故下垫面变化是导致洪水过程线洪峰、洪量和形状变化的主要原因.
Mann-Kendall nonparametric rank test was used to analyze the trend of maximum peak flow, total flood and flood course in the Zijinguan watershed over the years, and the flood peak and flood amount decreased significantly. This paper discussed the rainfall and the underlying factors which affected the flood process change.The trend of rainfall and rainfall intensity did not change obviously while the underlying surface changed obviously.The soil water storage capacity caused by land use change increased, The average infiltration rate of the basin increases, so the underlying surface change is the main reason that causes the flood peak, flood amount and shape change.