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本研究在已建立的东海EwE模型基础上,采用EwE中的“渔业政策优选”模块,根据东海渔业资源开发利用现状,模拟系统在经济、社会和生态三重准则下对多种渔业管理政策的响应,并结合层次分析法(AHP)从政策方案中选出“最理想的”东海渔业政策架构。模拟的时间尺度为41年,备选方案包括3个单准则方案、1个多准则方案和31个“复合准则方案”。结果表明:单准则方案和多准则方案将导致各种渔具捕捞努力量发生较大变化。35个方案间的比较分析结果为基于生态系统的东海渔业管理(EBFM)和海洋捕捞作业结构调整提供了一些有益的思路:①单一准则的渔业管理策略和具有相同优先级的多准则渔业管理策略不能实现EBFM总体目标;②就东海目前的渔业经济和社会状况而言,不宜过分地抬高生态系统准则在渔业管理中的地位,经济和社会准则仍然重要;③东海海洋捕捞作业结构调整的总体思路应该是减少拖网和虾拖网作业、控制围网和流刺网作业、大力发展外海渔业。
Based on the established East China Sea EwE model, this study adopted the “Fishery Policy Optimization” module in EwE. According to the current situation of the development and utilization of fishery resources in the East China Sea, the simulation system under various economic, social and ecological criteria for multiple fisheries management policies , And combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select the “best” East China Sea fishery policy structure from the policy plan. The simulation has a time scale of 41 years. The options include three single-criterion schemes, one multi-criterion scheme and 31 composite criteria schemes. The results show that the single-criterion scheme and multi-criterion scheme will lead to great changes in the fishing effort of all kinds of fishing gear. The comparative analysis of 35 programs provides some useful ideas for the ecosystem-based East China Sea Fisheries Management (EBFM) and the structural adjustment of marine fishing operations: ① The fishery management strategy with single criteria and the multi-criteria fisheries management strategy with the same priority The overall goal of EBFM can not be achieved; (2) economic status and social norms should not be excessively raised in the management of fisheries in terms of the current fishery economy and social conditions in the East China Sea; (3) the overall structural adjustment of marine fishing operations in the East China Sea The idea should be to reduce trawling and shrimp trawling operations, control seine and streamers operations, and vigorously develop offshore fisheries.