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利用中国南方地区15个省市自治区160个气象观测站台1990-2009年的气象资料,综合考虑气温、光照、风速、降水等主要致灾因子,并根据这些数据建立了基于实数编码的加速遗传算法的南方塑料大棚气象灾害的投影寻踪等级评价模型,计算出南方塑料大棚的气象灾害月份和季节的风险等级,并按季节进行了风险区划。结果表明:春季四川盆地地区气温回升较快,有利于设施作物生长,风险最低,重庆、贵州等地由于由于太阳总辐射低,设施作物易受到寡照灾害,风险等级最高;夏季沿海地区暴雨、台风等自然灾害频发,对设施结构有较大影响,有较高的风险;秋季高灾害风险等级分布较少,以低风险为主;冬季以北纬25°为分界线,北部地区气温低、热量条件缺乏,不适宜塑料大棚发展,南部地区则相反,风险低。我国南方秋季西部地区、冬季南部地区及春夏两季的四川盆地地区的气象灾害风险最小,适合塑料大棚的发展,研究结果为我国南方塑料大棚发展的合理布局和气象灾害防御提供参考。
Based on the meteorological data of 160 meteorological observation stations in 15 provinces and autonomous regions of China in 1990-2009, the major hazard factors such as temperature, light, wind speed and precipitation were comprehensively considered. Based on these data, an accelerated genetic algorithm based on real number coding And the projection tracking grade evaluation model of meteorological disasters in Southern Plastic Greenhouse to calculate the monthly and seasonal risk levels of meteorological disasters in southern plastic sheds and to carry out the risk zoning according to the season. The results show that the rapid warming in the Sichuan Basin in the spring is conducive to crop growth, with the lowest risk. In Chongqing and Guizhou, due to the low total solar radiation, the crop plants are vulnerable to oligozoic and the risk level is the highest. In summer, heavy rainfall in the coastal areas, typhoons Such as frequent occurrence of natural disasters, have a greater impact on the structure of facilities and have higher risks. In autumn, the distribution of high-level disaster risk is less, with low risk being dominant. In winter, latitude 25 ° north is the dividing line, and in northern areas, temperatures are low and calories are low The lack of conditions is not suitable for the development of plastic greenhouses, the southern region on the contrary, the low risk. The risk of meteorological disasters in the south of China in the autumn of the western part of China is the smallest, which is suitable for the development of plastic greenhouses. The research results provide references for the rational distribution of plastic greenhouse in southern China and meteorological disaster prevention.